The return, worked out
Fewer first-year leavers, more top performers.
Two returns, counted separately
Avoiding a poor hire and finding a great one are different things. Most of the gain from hiring well sits in a small group of people who do far more than the average, and in three quarters of the jobs studied performance has a long tail of top people (Joo, Aguinis and Bradley, 2017, 229 samples of real output).
So this page keeps the two apart. The first return is fewer people leaving or not working out in their first year, counted in money a company already spends. The second is more people who become top performers, counted from published research on what a top performer is worth.
The return by sector
Estimates for global businesses Speak to Kit has worked with in 2026. No company is named.
| Sector | Hires a year | First-year leavers | Their cost a year | Halving them is worth | Each extra top performer is worth at least |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A global IT services company | 12,000the company's own figure | 1,920 | £58.8 million | £29.4 million a year | £18,000 a yearon an estimated £45,000 salary |
| A European technology consultancy | 7,500worked out from its published headcount and staff turnover | 1,200 | £33.2 million | £16.6 million a year | £16,000 a yearon an estimated £40,000 salary |
| An online grocer | 2,400estimated from headcount | 380 | £7.7 million | £3.8 million a year | Not given.* |
| A global recruitment firm (its own staff) | 1,900estimated from headcount | 300 | £7.5 million | £3.8 million a year | £14,000 a yearon an estimated £35,000 salary |
| An airline software company | 500estimated from headcount | 80 | £2.2 million | £1.1 million a year | £16,000 a yearon an estimated £40,000 salary |
| A global payments company | 340estimated from headcount | 54 | £1.8 million | £913,000 a year | £20,000 a yearon an estimated £50,000 salary |
| An engineering consultancy | 280estimated from headcount | 45 | £1.5 million | £752,000 a year | £20,000 a yearon an estimated £50,000 salary |
| An accountancy training provider | 130estimated from headcount | 21 | £575,000 | £288,000 a year | £16,000 a yearon an estimated £40,000 salary |
| A data and cloud consultancy | 40estimated from headcount | 6 | £272,000 | £136,000 a year | £26,000 a yearon an estimated £65,000 salary |
| A phone leasing company | 43estimated from headcount and growth | 7 | £251,000 | £126,000 a year | £22,000 a yearon an estimated £55,000 salary |
* Many of its roles have capped output, where the research finds the smallest gaps between people (19% of average output in routine jobs).
The first-year figures use the same 16 in 100 for every company, because no company's own rate was found. A company's real numbers replace these the day it shares them.
Two worked examples
- A global IT services company hires about 12,000 people a year.
- At 16 in 100, about 1,920 of them leave in their first year.
- On an estimated £45,000 salary, each costs about £30,600, so first-year leavers cost about £58.8 million a year.
- Halving them means about 960 fewer people leaving, worth about £29.4 million a year.
- Each hire who performs in about the top sixth rather than at the average is worth at least £18,000 a year more on top of that.
- A phone leasing company hires about 43 people a year.
- At 16 in 100, about 7 leave in their first year.
- On an estimated £55,000 salary, each costs about £36,500, so first-year leavers cost about £251,000 a year, and halving them is worth about £126,000 a year.
- Each extra top performer is worth at least £22,000 a year.
Speak to Kit doesn't yet have a measured figure for how many more top performers a company hires with Kit. On the Talent and Enterprise plans, Kit checks in at 30 days, 90 days and a year, and that's how a company counts it.
How the figures are worked out
Every sector figure below is an estimate for the whole company, not a measured result. The method is the same for every row, and it's the one used on the How Kit works page.
- First-year leavers: hires a year times 16 in 100, the share of new hires at UK small firms who leave within a year (Project Brains survey, reported by HRreview, April 2024). No company's own first-year rate was used.
- Cost of each leaver: the worked example on How Kit works (about £51,000 on an £80,000 salary), scaled to pay. About £4,000 stays the same at any salary (recruiting again and onboarding), and the rest is about 59% of salary.
- Salary: estimated from the roles each company mostly hires. No salary was given by a company.
- Hires a year: the company's own figure where it gave one. Otherwise estimated at 20 in 100 of headcount, or 15 in 100 for a company that's shrinking.
- Halving first-year leavers: half the yearly cost of those leavers.
- A top performer: the floor from Schmidt and Hunter (1983 and 1998), at least 40% of salary a year more than an average hire, applied to the estimated salary. A rule of thumb, not a measured figure for any one job.
What the research says about top performers
Each finding below is on Speak to Kit's research page, with its source, year and sample.
The gap between people in the same job is about 48% of average output in professional jobs, 32% in mid-level skilled jobs and 19% in routine jobs, and 76.3% for sales account managers.
Hunter, Schmidt and Judiesch, 1990, Journal of Applied Psychology
In professional jobs, the top 1% produce roughly double the average.
Speak to Kit's sum, using the method in Hunter, Schmidt and Judiesch, 1990
As a floor, a better-than-average person is worth at least 40% of salary a year more: in a job paying £60,000, someone in about the top sixth adds at least £24,000 a year.
Schmidt and Hunter, 1983 and 1998
Senior executives estimated a high performer adds 40% more productivity in operations, 49% more profit in general management and 67% more revenue in sales (McKinsey, War for Talent, 2001, 410 corporate officers at 35 large US companies). What executives believe, not a measurement.
Ability matters more in complex jobs: its link to performance was roughly .58 in professional and management jobs against .23 in unskilled work.
Hunter and Hunter, 1984; since cut back, Sackett and colleagues, 2022, put ability at about .31 overall
This year's performance is a good guide to next year's in the same job, from .85 down to .67, but less so in complex jobs and on hard numbers.
Sturman, Cheramie and Cashen, 2005
When a manager calls someone a top performer, they mostly mean doing the core job very well and causing no trouble, which explained 51% to 64% of the overall rating, and managers didn't agree on the recipe.
Rotundo and Sackett, 2002, 504 managers in the US and Canada
How Speak to Kit counts both returns
Speak to Kit is an AI hiring system built for quality of hire: hiring people who deliver impact in their first 12 months. Each hiring manager says what a top performer delivers in their first 12 months. Speak to Kit speaks to every applicant about the way they work, then recommends to the hiring team who matches it, and why. Kit recommends who will be a top performer over 12 months, and every recommendation shows its reasons. The hiring team decides.
On the Talent and Enterprise plans, Speak to Kit checks in at 30 days, 90 days and a year to ask how each hire is doing: who is doing well, who stayed, who grew. It's part of a top performance hiring model built with each company, with bespoke professional services, and what it costs is agreed with each company. It isn't part of the Try Kit plan. So a company can count first-year leavers among people hired through Kit against the hires before, and see who is still delivering a year later.